How late will Tyler be to the family reunion?

• More than three hours late—61% chance

If our cousin Tyler arrives more than three hours after the official 2 P.M. start time, the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified by Aunt Donna, who will be telling us how late Tyler is every 15 minutes.

How much of Aunt Linda’s gelatin-based ham loaf will be eaten?

• More than half—2% chance

If more than half of Aunt Linda’s disgusting gelatin-based ham loaf is eaten by the end of the night, the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified by Uncle Mark when he says, “Jesus Christ Linda, nobody even touched it! We’re gonna be eating Piggly Jiggly Surprise for the next three days!”

Will Uncle Jeff show up with an uninvited date?

• Yes—89% chance

If Uncle Jeff rolls up in his convertible with a real human woman in the passenger seat (as opposed to the creepy mannequin he sometimes uses for the carpool lane), the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified by my mom when she freaks out and asks me to find another chair for Uncle Jeff’s “new plaything” and then jokes that I should “look for a high chair” because of how young the date is.

How young will Uncle Jeff’s uninvited date be?

• Over 28 years old—7% chance

If Uncle Jeff’s uninvited date is over 28 years old, the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified when my mom asks who was president of the United States when Uncle Jeff’s date graduated high school and then reminds everyone that Uncle Jeff voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976.

How expired will Aunt Donna’s store-bought potato salad be?

• More than two weeks expired—72% chance

If Aunt Donna, the bargain hunter of the family, brings a heavily discounted potato salad with a prominently displayed best-by date of 15 or more days before the family reunion, the market resolves to YES (and every toilet in a two-mile radius whispers a disheartened NO).

Outcome verified when someone points out the date and Aunt Donna claims she smell checked it when she “rescued it from the discount section a week ago.”

Will Grandpa Have Chest Pains After the Unofficial Hotdog Eating Contest?

• Yes—99.9% chance

If Grandpa reports having chest pains after the hotdog eating contest, the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified when Grandpa clutches his chest and says, “This is way more painful than the time Grandma kicked me in the family jewels because I said her sister had great gams.”

Will Uncle Jeff Win the Fist Fight Over the Last Pabst Blue Ribbon?

• Yes—51% chance

If Uncle Jeff can successfully tap into the raw strength that can only come from a man who needs to impress a much younger woman and win the fist fight with Uncle Mark for the last Pabst Blue Ribbon, the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified when 1) my mom pours the last Pabst Blue Ribbon over the winner’s head as he’s strangling the loser and 2) all accessories lost or removed prior to or during the fight (e.g., class rings, t-shirts, Uncle Jeff’s toupée) have been returned to their rightful owner.

How many ambulances will be required for the family reunion?

• More than one—67% chance

If two or more ambulances arrive before midnight for any reason (including but not limited to Grandpa having a heart attack, Uncle Mark needing stitches after the fist fight, or Aunt Donna having violent food poisoning after going to town on expired potato salad), the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified by my mom when she says, “Well, that’s [more/fewer] ambulances than last year’s reunion.”

How late will Tyler be to Grandpa’s funeral?

• More than three hours late—60% chance

If our cousin Tyler arrives more than three hours after the funeral start time of 2 P.M., the market resolves to YES.

Outcome verified by Aunt Donna, who will be setting out expired potato salad for the reception and telling us how late Tyler is every 15 minutes.